The Prosecutor's Fallacy
The Prosecutor's Fallacy is a flaw in statistical reasoning that often arises in legal arguments, and the opposite of the Defense Attorney's Fallacy. The fallacy is to consider the unlikelihood of an event, while neglecting the consider the number of opportunities for that event to occur. Consider the following two examples:
What does this have to do with poker? The Prosecutor's Fallacy usually arrises when a player is losing. When opponents make a series of improbable draws, the player begins to grow paranoid and accuse the player of cheating, the game of being rigged, etc. However, if you play enough poker, it's likely that you'll have an evening where the cards never go your way. Put simply, if you observe a large number of events, it's likely that you'll observe some unlikely events!